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Main Event Spotlight | UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez
We Break Down The Form And The Numbers Ahead Of A Key Battle In The Flyweight Division.
The UFC flyweight division is wide open in 2024, with a changing of the guard at the top of the division, a former champion on hiatus, and a host of ranked contenders jockeying for position in a bid to earn a shot at newly crowned king Alexandre Pantoja.
Two such contenders will go head-to-head at the UFC APEX this weekend at UFC Vegas 91, as Matheus Nicolau faces off against Alex Perez in a battle between two dangerous Top 10 flyweights. It’s a matchup with potentially big implications for the winner, with both men looking for redemption after losing out in their most recent appearances.
Ahead of fight night in Las Vegas, let’s take a closer look at the matchup to set the stage for Saturday night’s main event.
New target, same mission
Rio native Nicolau could be forgiven for experiencing a little FOMO, given the fact that there’s a big pay-per-view event heading to his hometown in a few weeks’ time. But he’ll be determined to take full advantage of the main event spotlight this weekend as he continues his quest for a 125-pound title shot.
The 31-year-old’s career record of 19-4-1 includes an 8-2 run in the UFC, and is littered with notable flyweight names as he has climbed the ladder at 125 pounds.
Since arriving in the UFC in 2016, Nicolau has defeated two former title challengers (John Moraga and Tim Elliott), as well as ranked flyweights David Dvorak, Matt Schnell and Manel Kape.
Currently listed fifth in the official UFC flyweight rankings, Nicolau was initially booked to rematch Kape this weekend in Las Vegas, but after “Starboy” was forced off the card, the UFC drafted in former title challenger Perez.
It’s a different challenge, but the task remains the same, as he bids to bounce back from a knockout loss in his last outing.
Last time out… vs. Brandon Royval
Nicolau headed into his April 2023 bout with Brandon Royval on a six-fight win streak, and that form was respected by the oddsmakers, who had him listed as a -200 favorite when their UFC Kansas City matchup got underway.
But, during the bout, Nicolau’s penchant for patience ultimately proved his downfall as Royval quickly seized the initiative, forced him onto the back foot, then scored one of the best flyweight finishes of the year with a perfectly-timed knee and a salvo of vicious follow-up elbows.
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For Nicolau, the fight was over almost before he’d landed a strike in anger. It also proved to be a missed opportunity, with Royval moving on to challenge for the flyweight title in his next fight.
Now, one year on from that defeat, Nicolau is ready to make amends as he looks to put himself back on course towards a title shot later this year.
A man on a mission
The Rise Of Alex Perez
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The Rise Of Alex Perez
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Meanwhile, Perez arrives in Las Vegas this week with a point of his own to prove. The 32-year-old’s career record stands at 24-8, but he is on the first three-fight skid of his career and has taken a short-notice opportunity against higher-ranked opposition in a bid to bounce back. It’s the sort of risk-taking approach that matchmakers appreciate, but for it to be worthwhile, Perez needs to win.
To mark Perez down purely on his recent form would be unwise. Each of his three losses have all come against top-drawer opposition – to Deiveson Figueiredo in an unsuccessful title challenge, to future champ Pantoja in a bout that earned the Brazilian his shot at the gold, and to rising flyweight star Muhammad Mokaev, a man of whom much is expected in the upcoming years.
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Put into that context, Perez’s losses shouldn’t be considered disastrous. He’s been operating there or thereabouts at the very sharp end of the division. But now the time has come for him to turn the ship around and leave the Octagon with a win. If he does so, the timing could be perfect for him.
Pantoja puts his belt on the line against Steve Erceg in Rio at UFC 301, but former champ Brandon Moreno has recently announced that he’s taking a break from competition. And with Pantoja winning the vacant title with victory over Brandon Royval, it’s possible the Brazilian will target another name if he can get past Erceg on May 4. That could potentially bring Perez back into play for a rematch – IF he can get the job done this weekend.
Last time out… vs. Muhammad Mokaev
After 19 months away from the cage, Perez made his return to action against Mokaev at the UFC APEX on March 2, and made light of his lengthy layoff as he produced a competitive performance to push “The Punisher” all the way to the judges’ scorecards in a losing effort. Indeed, Perez’s performance in defeat was good enough to snap Mokaev’s run of successive finishes, with the English contender having won each of his prior three bouts via submission.
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All three judges gave Round 2 to Perez in a bout that saw him lose out 29-28 on all three cards. It may have added another mark to his loss column, but it showed that he was still a competitive factor at 125 pounds, and will have helped him shake off any cage rust heading into the rest of the year.
Now, a little more than a month on from that bout, Perez is stepping up again to face Nicolau in a bout that could put him right back in the mix again.
Patience versus pace
The matchup between Nicolau and Perez offers a contrast of fighting philosophies, with the Brazilian taking a more considered approach to his work, while Perez looks to get in there, work an opening and get the job done as swiftly as possible.
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That statement is reflected in the stats sheet, which shows Perez as having the shortest average UFC fight time among active flyweights. The American has finished fights using a variety of methods, and he’s seen the scorecards just three times in his 10 UFC appearances so far. His average fight time of 6:02 is one that over/under bettors are likely already aware of. Nicolau probably knows it, too.
He might not be quite as fast when it comes to finishing his fights, but Nicolau’s skills have proved to be every bit as sharp. He’s listed third in the division’s all-time knockdowns list, with six, and while he’s dishing out the punishment on the feet, he’s equally adept at avoiding it from his opponents. Nicolau has successfully defended 66.6 percent of all significant strike attempts aimed at him during his UFC career – that’s the best striking defense in the division.
Stick and move, or stand and bang?
Both men boast top-drawer takedown defense, with Nicolau’s 93.3 percent leaping off the page, while Perez’s 81.5 percent shows he’s no slouch in that department, either.
That suggests that we’re more than likely to see the pair engaging in a predominantly stand-up battle, and in that regard, the fight may come down to who can land their strikes more effectively over the course of the matchup.
On paper, Nicolau has the edge in striking accuracy and knockdown average, but Perez has a higher strike rate, a higher strike differential, and has two UFC finishes by KO/TKO, compared to Nicolau’s one.
However, the big difference isn’t one that’s shown in the numbers of a spreadsheet. Nicolau’s patient, stick-and-move approach stands in stark contrast to Perez’s more blitz-based, in-and-out style.
It all adds up to a well-matched flyweight main event. Both men have redemption on their minds, both have designs on a run at the title, and both have dangerous striking that can help propel them to victory. But they deploy those skills very differently, and seeing whose approach will prevail should make for fascinating viewing on Saturday night.
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs Perez took place live from UFC APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada on April 27, 2024. See the final Prelims and Main Card Results, Official Scorecards and Who Won Bonuses - and relive the action on UFC Fight Pass!
